🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.